Methodology for development of severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves and drought forecasting tool
Drought is a natural hazard that is often referred to as a creeping phenomenon. Drought monitoring and early warning is very essential in identifying climate and water supply trends and thus to detect the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought. This paper reviews the liter...
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2832/ http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2832/1/SITI_NAZAHIYAH.pdf |
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| Summary: | Drought is a natural hazard that is often referred to as a creeping phenomenon. Drought monitoring and early warning is very essential in identifying climate and water supply trends and thus to detect the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought. This paper reviews the literature on developing a methodology to assess drought severity, monitor and prediction of droughts in the future. Thirty (30) meteorological stations across Victoria, Australia were selected. Drought Indices (DIs) have been commonly used to quantify drought conditions and meteorological drought indices were considered for further analysis based on literature for this study. Several regionalisation techniques such as Cluster Analysis, Discriminant Analysis and Andrews’ curve will be applied in order to cluster each region with the similar drought characteristics. Catchment physiographical characteristics such as mean annual precipitation, mean seasonal precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and Standardised Precipitation Index values. Drought severity – duration - frequency curves for each region will be developed in order to provide information in a manner that is suitable for different drought affected groups. The best drought forecasting tool applicable to Victoria will be selected to forecast short and long term drought conditions. In addition, a method of parameter updating based on real time will be also developed. |
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